“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。     

极地低压对费拉姆海峡大西洋入流水天气尺度变化的影响

The Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait(78°50′N) has synoptic scale variability based on an array of moorings over the period of 1998–2010. The synoptic scale variability of Atlantic inflow, whose significant cycle is 3–16 d, occurs mainly in winter and spring(from January to April) and is related with polar lows in the Barents Sea. On the synoptic scale, the enhancement(weakening) of Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait is accompanied by less(more)polar lows in the Barents Sea. Wind stress curl induced by polar lows in the Barents Sea causes Ekman-transport,leads to decrease of sea surface height in the Barents Sea, due to geostrophic adjustment, further induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly around the Barents Sea, and causes the weakening of the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait. Our results highlight the importance of polar lows in forcing the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait and can help us to further understand the effect of Atlantic warm water on the change of the Arctic Ocean.     

中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。     

Canonical theory of perturbations using eccentric anomaly as independent variable

It is shown in this paper how to build a canonical transformation of variables, so that the eccentric anomaly becomes the new independent variable. In the case of eccentric elliptical orbits it changes the equations of motion so, that they can be integrated analytically to any order of approximation comparatively easy.     

太阳发电机理论研究进展

太阳发电机理论主要解释太阳磁场的起源和演化，是太阳物理中最基本、最重要的问题之一．对它的研究不仅具有重要的科学价值，而且对空间天气的预测和空间技术的发展有一定的影响．随着日震学的发展，该理论也得到了很大改进。从相关观测入手，综述了发电机理论需解释的观测事实，以及为发电机理论提供约束的太阳内部动力学结构；介绍了基本理论和近来的主流模型，并指出尚待解决的问题和进一步的努力方向。     

Application of micropolar plasticity to post failure analysis in geomechanics

A micropolar elastoplastic model for soils is formulated and a series of finite element analyses are employed to demonstrate the use of a micropolar continuum in overcoming the numerical difficulties encountered in application of finite element method in standard Cauchy–Boltzmann continuum. Three examples of failure analysis involving a deep excavation, shallow foundation, and a retaining wall are presented. In all these cases, it is observed that the length scale introduced in the polar continuum regularizes the incremental boundary value problem and allows the numerical simulation to be continued until a clear collapse mechanism is achieved. The issue of grain size effect is also discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study on the reference frame consistency in recent Earth gravitational models

All gravity field functionals obtained from an Earth gravitational model (EGM) depend on the underlying terrestrial reference frame (TRF), with respect to which the EGM’s spherical harmonic coefficients refer to. In order to maintain a coherent framework for the comparison of current and future EGMs, it is thus important to investigate the consistency of their inherent TRFs, especially when their use is intended for high precision studies. Following the methodology described in an earlier paper by Kleusberg (1980), the similarity transformation parameters between the associated reference frames for several EGMs (including the most recent CHAMP/GRACE models at the time of writing this paper) are estimated in the present study. Specifically, the differences between the spherical harmonic coefficients for various pairs of EGMs are parameterized through a 3D-similarity spatial transformation model that relates their underlying TRFs. From the least-squares adjustment of such a parametric model, the origin, orientation and scale stability between the EGMs’ reference frames can be identified by estimating their corresponding translation, rotation and scale factor parameters. Various aspects of the estimation procedure and its results are highlighted in the paper, including data weighting schemes, the sensitivity of the results with respect to the selected harmonic spectral band, the correlation structure and precision level of the estimated transformation parameters, the effect of the estimated differences of the EGMs’ reference frames on their height anomaly signal, and the overall feasibility of Kleusberg’s formulae for the assessment of TRF inconsistencies among global geopotential models.     

Numerical calculations in the orbital determination of an artificial satellite for a long arc

Numerical methods are usually used for the computation of ephemerides with perturbations for the precise orbital determination of an artificial satellite. But their numerical stability will be encountered in a long arc. In this case the use the improved Encke special perturbation methods has been suggested. The results of this paper show that Encke's method does indeed have a certain effectiveness, but cannot yet completely resolve the numerical stability, and the more efficient method is to use the energy integral or its variational relation to control the growth of the along-track error in general numerical calculations so that the aim of stabilization can be achieved.     

FITS、BMP和SCR图象格式及相互转换

本文详细介绍图象的ＦＩＴＳ格式、ＢＭＰ格式和ＳＣＲ格式。ＦＩＴＳ格式已经是天文界的通用格式，几乎所有的天文软件包都支持这一格式，而ＢＭＰ格式在ＰＣ计算机上有广泛的运用，有大量ＰＣ软件支持ＢＭＰ图象的显示，处理和打印。云南天文台的ＳＣＲ格式是ＰＣ机采集ＣＣＤ图象所使用的格式。实现这三种格式的相互转换，就可以自由的将ＣＣＤ图象在ＰＣ机和工作站上进行各种处理。转换的包括图象头和图象数据的转换，其关键在于交换数据的高低字节。